TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Tables...........................................................v
List of Figures.......................................................xiii
List of Appendix Tables.................................................xx
List of Abbreviations.................................................xxii
Preface............................... ...............................xxiv
Introduction and General Notes.........................................xxv
Executive Summary...................................................xxviii

Part I. China's Downstream Oil Industry and Markets: Current Situation and Future Prospects

Chapter 1. Energy and the Economy......................................1-1
1.1. Primary Energy Production and Consumption: An Overview............1-1
1.1.1. Primary Energy Production.......................................1-1
1.1.2. Primary Energy Consumption......................................1-3

1.2. Coal..............................................................1-5

1.3. Oil...............................................................1-8

1.4. Natural Gas......................................................1-11

1.5. Electric Power...................................................1-12 1.5.1.Hydropower......................................................1-13

1.5.2. Nuclear Power..................................................1-16

1.6. Economic Development: An Overview................................1-16
1.7. China's Energy Vulnerabilities...................................1-20

Chapter 2. Changing Structure of the Oil Industry......................2-1

2.1. Structural Changes of the Oil Industry in the 1990s..................................................................2-1
2.2. Latest Developments in the 2000s..................................2-3
2.2.1. Stock Listing, Consolidation, and Streamlining of State Oil Companies..............................................................2-3
2.2.2. China's Entry into WTO..........................................2-5
2.2.3. Governmental Reshuffles in 2003.................................2-6
2.3. Who's Who in the Oil Industry.....................................2-8

Chapter 3. Upstream Oil Sector Developments and Trade..................................................................3-1
3.1. An Overview of Upstream Oil Development and Policies...............................................................3-1
3.2. Crude Production by Field and Quality of Major Crudes.................................................................3-5
3.2.1. Daqing Oil......................................................3-6
3.2.2. Shengli Oil.....................................................3-8
3.2.3. Liaohe Oil.....................................................3-11
3.2.4. Xinjiang/Tarim Oil.............................................3-13
3.2.5. Other Onshore Crudes...........................................3-15
3.2.6. Offshore Oil...................................................3-16
3.2.7. Future Prospects of Oil Production in China to 2015..................................................................3-17
3.3. China's Crude Oil Exports and Imports............................3-17

3.3.1. Crude Exports..................................................3-17

3.3.2. Crude Imports..................................................3-19

3.3.3. Future Growth..................................................3-20

3.4. An Overview of Foreign Investment in the Upstream Oil Sector................................................................3-21

3.4.1. Upstream Offshore..............................................3-21

3.4.2. Upstream Onshore...............................................3-22

3.5. An Overview of China's Overseas Oil Investment............................................................3-25

3.5.1. CNPC and PetroChina............................................3-26

3.5.2. CNOOC..........................................................3-29

3.5.3. Sinopec........................................................3-30

3.5.4. Other Chinese Companies........................................3-31

Chapter 4. China's Refining Industry in the 2000s......................4-1
4.1. China's Refining Capability: An Overview..........................4-1

4.1.1. Historical Developments.........................................4-1

4.4.2. China's Capacity at Present and the Major Players...............4-2

4.2. The Processing Configurations.....................................4-6

4.2.1. Major Characteristics...........................................4-6

4.2.2. Handling Sour Crudes in the Chinese Refining System............4-11

4.3. Refining Throughput and Utilization Rate........................ 4-14

4.4. Outlook for Capacity Additions and Crude Runs ...................4-16

4.5. An Overview of Foreign Investment in the Refining Sector.........4-18

4.6. A Key Linkage between Refining and Petrochemicals: Ethylene......4-20

Chapter 5. Petroleum Product Demand, Supply, and Balances...............................................................5-1

5.1. Petroleum Product Demand, Supply, and Trade: An Overview...............................................................5-1

5.2. LPG Demand, Supply, Trade, and Future Growth................................................................5-10

5.3. Gasoline Demand, Supply, Trade, and Future Growth................................................................5-14

5.4. Kero/jet Demand, Supply, Trade, and Future Growth................5-19

5.5. Diesel Demand, Supply, Trade, and Future Growth..................5-23

5.6. Fuel Oil Demand, Supply, Trade, and Future Growth................5-25

5.7. Demand, Supply, Trade, and Future Growth of Other Products.......5-32

5.7.1. Petrochemical Feedstock........................................5-32

5.7.2. Lube Oil.......................................................5-36

5.7.3. Petroleum Asphalt..............................................5-39

5.7.4. Petroleum Wax..................................................5-40

5.7.5. Petroleum Coke.................................................5-41

5.8. China's Overall Net Oil Imports..................................5-42

Chapter 6. Petroleum Market, Price, and Infrastructure.........................................................6-1

6.1. China's Oil Markets after WTO.....................................6-1

6.2. Crude and Product Price Reforms...................................6-3

6.2.1. Crude Oil Pricing...............................................6-4

6.2.2. Refined Product Pricing.........................................6-5

6.3. Trade with China: Regulations on Oil Imports after WTO....................................................................6-8

6.4. Government Regulations on Oil Marketing after WTO................6-10

6.5. Petroleum Infrastructure.........................................6-11

6.5.1. Crude Oil Pipelines and Terminals..............................6-12
6.5.2. Transportation of Refined Products …6-15
6.5.3. Storage Facilities.............................................6-15

6.5.4. Strategic Petroleum Reserves...................................6-16

6.5.5. LPG Storage....................................................6-17

6.6. Foreign Investment in Oil Marketing and Infrastructure...........6-19
6.6.1. Retail Market..................................................6-19
6.6.2. Lube Oil Market................................................6-20
6.6.3. Petroleum Infrastructure.......................................6-21

Chapter 7. China's Oil Industry in the International Context................................................................7-1

7.1. Outlook for Regional Product Demand and Oil Production: Role of China .................................................................7-1

7.2. Refining Outlook in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Role of China.7-4

7.3. Impact of China on Asia's Oil Imports and Energy Security.........7-6

Part II. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Demand, Supply, and Product Balances to 2015

Chapter 8. An Overview of China's Regions..............................8-1

8.1. Division of Regions for the study.................................8-1

8.2. Overview of Regional Economic Development.........................8-1

8.3. Regional Distribution of Primary Energy Production.............................................................8-8

8.3.1. Crude Oil.......................................................8-8

8.3.2. Coal............................................................8-9

8.3.3. Natural Gas....................................................8-10

8.3.4. Electric Power.................................................8-11

Chapter 9. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances:
The Northeast..........................................................9-1

9.1. Heilongjiang Province.............................................9-2

9.2. Jilin Province....................................................9-6

9.3. Liaoning Province.................................................9-9

9.4. Regional Petroleum Product Balances..............................9-12

Chapter 10. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances:
The North.............................................................10-1
10.1. The Municipality of Beijing.....................................10-3
10.2. Hebei Province..................................................10-7
10.3. Henan Province..................................................10-9
10.4. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region...............................10-12
10.5. Shandong Province..............................................10-15
10.6. Shanxi Province................................................10-19
10.7. The Municipality of Tianjin....................................10-20
10.8. Regional Petroleum Product Balances............................10-22

Chapter 11. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances:
The Middle Yangtze Region.............................................11-1
11.1. Hubei Province..................................................11-2
11.2. Hunan Province..................................................11-5
11.3. Jiangxi Province................................................11-8
11.4. Regional Petroleum Product Balances............................11-11

Chapter 12. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances:
The Lower Yangtze Region..............................................12-1
12.1. Anhui Province..................................................12-1
12.2. Jiangsu Province................................................12-5
12.3. The Municipality of Shanghai....................................12-9
12.4. Zhejiang Province..............................................12-11
12.5. Regional Petroleum Product Balances............................12-14

Chapter 13. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances: The South ................................................................13-1
13.1. Fujian Province.................................................13-1
13.2. Guangdong Province..............................................13-6
13.3. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region................................13-9
13.4. Hainan Province................................................13-11
13.5. Regional Petroleum Product Balances............................13-12

Chapter 14. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances:
The Southwest.........................................................14-1
14.1. The Municipality of Chongqing...................................14-3
14.2. Guizhou Province................................................14-5
14.3. Sichuan Province................................................14-5
14.4. Yunnan Province.................................................14-9
14.5. Regional Petroleum Product Balances.............................14-9

Chapter 15. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances:
The Northwest.........................................................15-1
15.1. Gansu Province..................................................15-1
15.2. Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region...................................15-6
15.3. Shaanxi Province................................................15-8
15.4. Regional Petroleum Product Balances............................15-11

Chapter 16. Provincial and Regional Petroleum Product Balances:
The West..............................................................16-1
16.1. Qinghai Province................................................16-1
16.2. Xinjiang Urgur Autonomous Region................................16-6
16.3. Tibet...........................................................16-9
16.4. Regional Petroleum Product Balances............................16-10

Chapter 17. Review of Regional and National Petroleum Product Balances17-1
17.1. Refining Capacity and Crude Runs................................17-1
17.1.1. Regional Refining Capacity and Crude Runs..................................................................17-1
17.1.2. Outlook for Regional Refining Capacity and
Crude Runs............................................................17-1

17.2. Outlook for Regional Petroleum Product Balances..............................................................17-3
17.3. Total-of-All-Provinces Product Balances........................17-15

Chapter 18. Concluding Remarks........................................18-1

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